Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 96910.046755 102151.004258 107387.404979 113008.333637 118867.670437 124791.900171 131230.903595
2025-09-14 88640.337935 96687.041358 104947.257736 114049.793615 123788.192308 133883.656317 145129.526959
2025-09-21 82154.157199 92085.447421 102500.818673 114216.492547 127005.459232 140519.953387 155858.356993
2025-09-28 77130.867945 88460.984242 100558.558483 114400.900102 129764.311472 146255.912564 165259.303310
2025-10-05 74126.458183 86711.055045 100356.509041 116198.752305 134030.406532 153425.323066 176059.047658
2025-10-12 71418.098767 85047.620480 100032.378095 117657.534107 137745.319731 159850.243026 185935.575533
2025-10-19 68661.479488 83133.694790 99250.722342 118436.547555 140554.865588 165154.259749 194478.337181
2025-10-26 65847.214870 80988.390951 98056.028364 118603.552825 142546.247780 169438.881491 201797.993064
2025-11-02 63492.840246 79251.806493 97218.376113 119076.019199 144798.747730 173955.027135 209340.734221
2025-11-09 61082.473614 77333.435559 96063.874654 119080.425964 146423.593849 177685.414370 215935.852756
2025-11-16 59530.610765 76363.672312 95960.736676 120264.709651 149387.055658 182945.699617 224309.860055
2025-11-23 57421.099500 74630.097684 94866.428117 120193.534155 150801.586511 186346.545045 230477.147636
2025-11-30 56251.180317 74019.474704 95111.227149 121735.886345 154169.012323 192105.785644 239522.955390
2025-12-07 54879.368293 73106.343077 94945.304487 122746.924886 156879.555057 197086.973873 247672.508500
2025-12-14 53167.011309 71703.577421 94121.917684 122902.523312 158512.723776 200755.022672 254245.710802
2025-12-21 51576.557325 70396.888659 93365.524873 123093.524475 160152.101095 204408.439870 260797.519280
2025-12-28 50902.466080 70227.317702 94003.632105 125001.123204 163899.996182 210631.069959 270500.046426
2026-01-04 50104.681165 69864.498858 94371.089508 126549.344431 167193.886050 216306.599849 279563.301437
2026-01-11 49023.388106 69094.565528 94188.905067 127376.109710 169569.768671 220851.371764 287253.945366
2026-01-18 47707.984076 67975.427220 93522.488268 127553.343814 171104.246218 224344.127635 293649.692158
2026-01-25 46598.603495 67093.523330 93130.472207 128054.765738 173029.872388 228316.242653 300650.227031
2026-02-01 45329.404182 65960.175248 92377.540913 128059.441880 174299.529038 231456.508758 306615.465605
2026-02-08 44641.850714 65587.078396 92599.885419 129316.218030 177166.838968 236609.838834 315128.838274